.

Tropical Atlantic Weather

Tropics are becoming active.

The surface low in the Atlantic has now become Tropical Depression 5, if and when it becomes a tropical storm, it will be Ernesto. I have several links you can use to track the status of this depression:

 

Here's the latest from the NHC

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.

MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.  OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16.  GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

Please remember, whenever you need weather information, please visit us at the new and improved DaculaWeather.com. You can also get the latest weather information by following us on Twitter and Facebook 
DaculaWeather.com... Your Window to the Weather

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather August 03, 2012 at 02:13 AM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 02/2100 UTC...CENTERED AT 03/0000 UTC NEAR 13.3N 57.4W OR ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BARBADOS MOVING W AT 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 51W-60W. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_tropical_discussion.php http://www.daculaweather.com/4_tropical_surface_analysis.php
North Georgia Weather August 03, 2012 at 10:02 PM
A new wave has just exited the east coast of Africa that looks very interesting, and in fact, the NHC has already given it a 50% chance of developing. This would be very early to assign such a chance so this might be something to watch closely. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_tropical_outlook.php
North Georgia Weather August 04, 2012 at 10:24 AM
Here's a forecast from a meteorologist i highly respect (can only tell you his name is Phil!). He's afraid he's not being bullish enough. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/forecast_1.png
North Georgia Weather August 04, 2012 at 10:28 AM
This morning Ernesto is up to 60 mph and moving west at 18mph. 72 hour wind/wave maps show 23 foot seas and a hurricane in 72 hours. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_tropical_graphical.php
North Georgia Weather August 04, 2012 at 11:05 AM
Phil believes there will be slow intensification for the next 72 hours, and then rapid intensification after that. It's believed Ernesto will clip the Yucatan peninsula before entering the Gulf which will help to slow it's strengthening. After entering the Gulf, Ernesto may begin to curve more toward the north in response to a weakness in the atmosphere. That may be good news for us regarding rainfall, the bad news is once Ernesto reaches the Gulf, he has plenty of very warm water to feed off of. This will need to be watched very closely over the next 3-5 days and could end up being a very dangerous storm..
North Georgia Weather August 04, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Here's what I'm taking about. This forecast depicts Ernesto to be churning in the center of the Gulf of Mexico on August 9th about 1am (at about 126 hours) with 122 mph winds. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/slp21.png
North Georgia Weather August 04, 2012 at 12:22 PM
We have another one! TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
North Georgia Weather August 07, 2012 at 12:28 AM
Here's the latest high quality satellite image of Ernesto. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_08/ernesto_1.jpg
North Georgia Weather August 07, 2012 at 05:22 PM
Ernesto should be a hurricane shortly.
North Georgia Weather August 07, 2012 at 06:16 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
North Georgia Weather August 18, 2012 at 11:35 PM
A very favorable time for tropical development right now. Comments from two meteorologist just a few minutes ago: "With the favorable MJO state currently , the GFS is really going bonkers with cyclogenesis over the next 120 hours. We have 5 low-level vort maxes on the map in 72 hours (one in the Gulf of Mexico, One in the Caribbean, Three in the Atlantic). Obviously the probability of all of these systems developing is low, but I think a short term burst of 2-3 tropical cyclones is not out of the question before the 25th of August." "One of the key things I'm seeing is the intensification and expansion of the subtropical high throughout the GFS run (probably due to the MJO intensifying upward motion in the tropics). This creates a favorable environment for TC intensification due to low wind shear as well as the intensification of confluent flow along the ITCZ, making it more prone to rolling up into disturbances. This is about right on schedule and may indicate that things will be active for 2-3 weeks, since the strengthened subtropical high and favorable conditions that go along with it aren't going to go away for awhile.... though things will get less favorable when the MJO flips again."
Kristi Reed (Editor) August 18, 2012 at 11:38 PM
I just hope we get a little bit of rain. My hydrangeas are getting all wilted.
North Georgia Weather August 22, 2012 at 12:49 PM
We have a new one, Tropical Storm Isaac. This will be one for us to watch for early next week. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_isaac.php

Boards

More »
Got a question? Something on your mind? Talk to your community, directly.
Note Article
Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors.What's on your mind?What's on your mind?Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell somethingPost something
See more »