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Hurricane Sandy Update and Another Storm Threat for the Northeast

Updates for the aftermath of Sandy

Update from Jeff L (HCFCD):

See below on potential Nor’easter threat for the NE US next week. 

The first part of this e-mail will document some of the number associated with Hurricane Sandy, full documentation of the storm surge, rainfall, wind, and snow amounts will take several days and damage numbers will take months. The overall scope of the event and severity of the damage is the worst ever seen on the US east coast and second only to Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf coast. 

Some Early Numbers: 

· Yesterday the death toll rose sharply from 55 to 98 as numerous fatalities were discovered in Staten Island in still flooded or collapsed homes. There have been 14 fatalities on Staten Island alone and 46 in New York City. 

· A very rough estimate indicates that between 50,000 and 250,000 structures may have been inundated with sea water. 

· Damage estimates now stand near 50 billion dollars with the highest estimates at 88 billion, which still falls short of Hurricane Katrina’s 108 billion. 

· Power remains out to 4.6 million residents down from 8.2 million on Tuesday. Most of lower Manhattan remains without power due to flooding of sub-ground power stations. 

· 14 out of 21 NYC subway lines have been returned to service, but the remaining lines have suffered extensive damage from sea water which is still being pumped. Some of the most damaged lines and stations will be out of service for months. 

· An estimated 200 million gallons of sea water flooded the “Ground Zero” site. Pumps are removing 20 million gallons of sea water from the site per day. 

· In New Jersey, 1300 natural gas leaks were detected on the heavily damaged barrier islands, and crews sent to cap the leaks discovered that many of the lines that were broken when homes were washed away were now buried under 6-8 feet of sand. Due to the extreme risk of explosion, the state ordered the lines to 28,000 structures to the purged with water as a last resort effort to prevent explosions. It is estimated that this move will destroy all the lines and has cut natural gas service to the barrier islands for potentially months. 

· In Seaside Heights, NJ only 4 out of 40 rides at the boardwalk survived the storm surge and wave action. Damage is so severe that most of the boardwalk and pier will likely have to be torn down. 

Recovery: 

· FEMA has deployed 2200 personnel to the 17 affected states with 305,000 liters of water and 185,000 meals in holding locations preparing to be deployed to recovery centers. 

· President Obama has order US NAVY ships: USS Wasp, Carter Hall, and Mesa Verde to the New Jersey and Long Island coast to support search and rescues operations and acting as landing locations for USCG, National Guard, and civilian helicopters. 

· 11,800 National Guard members are on duty in the affects states. 

· The American Red Cross is housing 9,000 residents in 171 shelters in 13 states. 1700 ARC workers have been deployed with 25,000 meals and 230,000 MRE’s. 

Top 5 Most Costliest US Hurricanes: 
1) Katrina (108B) 
2) Sandy (50B) 
3) Ike (29.5B) 
4) Andrew (26.5B) 
5) Wilma (21  

Nor’easter Threat 

The upper air pattern over the US will continue with troughing over the eastern US and ridging over the west. A strong short wave will travel from the NW US into the base of the eastern US trough and help along the formation of surface low pressure over the SE US or along the SE US coast late this weekend/early next week. The upper level pattern is favorable for this trough to encourage the deepening of this surface low into a coastal storm as it passes very near the North Carolina coast and then moves NNE toward New England toward the middle of next week. The ECMWF and GFS models are in fairly decent agreement on the track of this system and impacts would be felt over the mid-Atlantic and NE US. 

It is still several days away, and forecast models are not showing an overly strong storm system, but even a mild storm will only delay ongoing recovery operations. Current forecast suggest increasing winds and rains over the Sandy impact region by Tuesday with potential for winds of 30-50mph by Wednesday as the coastal storm moves across the nearshore coastal waters. Onshore winds will direct wave action back toward the coast and with dune protection completely destroyed, some coastal overwash will be possible. Structures heavily damaged or near the point of collapse may not survive addition wave action and beach erosion. 

Much colder air will be in place with this storm and rain may transition to frozen precipitation over the higher terrain of the NE and mid-Atlantic states. Gusty winds will likely delay power restoration and may cause additional power outages due to the fragile conditions of the above ground lines and weakened vegetation in the region. 

The threat and impacts will be fine tuned over the next few days. 

NOAA Response Images: Mapping application of aircraft images for the entire New Jersey coast. Long Island is underway. These images will be used to determine before and after coastal change: 
http://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/sandy/

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North Georgia Weather November 02, 2012 at 05:44 PM
Using the CoCoRaHS "Total Precipitation Summary Report" option, we're able to now add up storm rainfall totals from this week's rain. The greatest totals were found in extreme SE New Jersey (Cape May County) where 4 volunteers reported over 11.40" of rain. The greatest number of reporting stations exceeding 8" of rain were found in Maryland, eastern VA and in DE. We also had many, many areas farther inland dealing with deep and wind-driven snow. Thanks so much to all of you for dealing with these harsh conditions in order to send in your measurements. This storm will be studied for years to come, and your data will be a part of these studies.
North Georgia Weather November 02, 2012 at 09:47 PM
A very lucky hiker. I guess he wasn't reading the Patch! :-) http://www.citizen-times.com/viewart/20121102/NEWS01/121102018/Stranded-Appalachian-Trailer-hiker-rescued
North Georgia Weather November 03, 2012 at 08:59 PM
I just uploaded a new image from the Mt. Holly NJ National Weather Service Office.
Harriet November 04, 2012 at 12:11 PM
Romney won't help storm victims like Obama is doing.
North Georgia Weather November 04, 2012 at 12:34 PM
What is Obama doing that any other President wouldn't do? Sounds like a pretty harsh thing to say about someone that donates as much money to charities as he does. And you speak this as if it's a fact, like it's already decided. "No more help for storm victims" will be the next headline. What have you been reading or listening to?
David Binder November 04, 2012 at 12:47 PM
How do you know that Harriet ? Just curious.
Mary Lou November 04, 2012 at 01:43 PM
@harriet- I do know that Romney asked that people planning to donate to his campaign, to instead please donate to the red cross to help these people ravaged by this storm. I know a lot of people that did that at his request. Do you? and have you done anything? what is/has oboma done? I haven't heard him ask anyone to donate money to help the victims instead of fund HIS campaign, but I have heard him spouting his messages of hate and revenge to rally his supporters. Strange that a non president is out there doing and looking more presidential than the actual job holder of such title.
North Georgia Weather November 05, 2012 at 11:27 AM
From the HPC: THEREAFTER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHERE IT POTENTIALLY WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO EJECT INTO THE OPEN OCEAN. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION EXPECTED CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A PHASING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THIS SURFACE LOW WHILE RISING UP THE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE BY LATE TUESDAY BEFORE THE IMPACTS SPREAD NORTHWARD.
North Georgia Weather November 05, 2012 at 11:28 PM
These guys have had it rough! This is from the Mt. Holly NWS office in Philadelphia. ..STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. • WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. • SEAS...13 TO 19 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND 3 TO 7 FEET IN DELAWARE BAY. • TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY.
North Georgia Weather November 06, 2012 at 10:25 AM
NWS Mt. Holly NJ http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/4_severe_alert.php?WFO=phi
North Georgia Weather November 06, 2012 at 12:24 PM
Snow in north Georgia? ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING MORE RAINFALL TONIGHT. AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF 2500 FEET AND ABOVE.
North Georgia Weather November 06, 2012 at 12:54 PM
Despite the claims from politicians that Sandy was caused by GW... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/05/an-inconvenient-truth-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-along-sandys-track-havent-warmed-in-70-years/
Tammy Osier November 06, 2012 at 02:05 PM
MaryLou - in fact Romney has gotten a lot of flack from republicans for his research into global warming. Don't bother trying to explain that to someone in the tank for obama. A waste of time. If someone does a careful study of Romney, they will find a man who has given away most of his fortune to those less fortunate. He put out a reward out of his own pocket when one of his employees children became missing. He donated money and paid for out of pocket expenses for kids of his employees who had cancer. The list goes on. Obama thinks about himself and himself alone. He had his photo op in NJ and then back on the campaign trail. That's how much he cares about this country. Maybe those people will "remember" him at the polls today.
Tammy Osier November 06, 2012 at 02:09 PM
NGW - It's my understanding that in the 20's under one of our presidents that we had two major hurricanes that wiped out 1/3 of the populations where they were? What's that story, do you know? Apparently, those presidents didn't do enough about global warming either lol
GregRodgers November 06, 2012 at 02:16 PM
Well David...he said he thinks its a terrible Idea to have Fema. When he was in Massachusetts as Governor..he vetoedFederal Money for disaster. There were floods in Taunton and Peabody Mass: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/05/1097537/-EPIC-FAIL-Romney-as-MA-Gov-The-2006-Floods http://www.alan.com/2012/10/30/romney-vetoed-flood-coverage-in-mass-even-after-a-flood-then-was-absent-during-the-next-one/ So its very easy to see that he would not help like Obama did. Simple...Obama rushed to help. Romney stopped the help. Then begged for the federal money because he had no choice. Romney was a terrible Governor...but folks want him as President...because they don't do research. Sad....
GregRodgers November 06, 2012 at 02:18 PM
So what he donates to charity. He also outsourced American Jobs to china and put plenty of people in the unemployment line. (I should know...I was one of those people) And your point?
Mary Lou November 06, 2012 at 02:43 PM
Tammy- yes, he has donated heavily of his own monies, but most wont take the time to research because they just dont care. They'd rather complain and wouldn't go to such lengths themselves to help someone. But whats the prezbo doing today? Its been said, he is relaxing playing basketball today, I wonder why he is not back to the storm ravaged area helping people suffering? Guess it takes a lot to be out in Vegas playing grabbass with the celebrities and the highfaluting instead of rolling up his sleeves and doing ground work for whats probably his constituents that are hurting. Will they see it? depends on if their truly sheeple or can actual think for themselves. Regardless, I did send a financial contribution but not through the red cross, unfortunately, they seemed to be infected with excessive admin costs and politics as well, not so much for the people. Back during hurricane Katrina weren't they charging some people for coffee?
Tammy Osier November 06, 2012 at 03:24 PM
MaryLou- Most don't pay attention to the fact that he toook on the Olympics without taking a salary. What kills me is that liberals bereted him the most on being rich, but he's one of th rich who gives his money away freely. Too bad our country thinks it can't have a leader unless they're crooked. What have we become?
Mary Lou November 06, 2012 at 04:01 PM
Tammy I think what it boils down to, is wealth envy much? thats the sad reality of many. Me personally, its an admiration of ones success and drives me to ponder "what can I do to have that for myself", not steal from others or wish for another to lose their fruits of either hard work, or wise investments, to fund me. People get so outraged that- oh my gosh! someone is getting a break or write off for their charitable contribution..well what needs would go unmet and who would truly suffer(like the people that were needy) if that contributor no longer helped out because they were punished? really? we shouldn't reward someone for helping someone out when they were in a position to do so? simply defies logic. It amazes me to stand back and see the amount of people that would cut their noses off to spite their faces.
Tammy Osier November 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM
That's it. people cut off their noses to spite their face. Perfect analogy.
North Georgia Weather November 07, 2012 at 02:13 PM
TWC just named this storm "Winter Storm Athena". On visible, I think it looks subtropical, with covection firing just NW of center, east of VA Capes:
North Georgia Weather November 07, 2012 at 02:58 PM
LOL!!! From the NWS: 235 NOUS71 KVUY 071402 ADMERH ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN REGION BOHEMIA NY 900 AM EST WED NOVEMBER 7 2012 TO: ALL ER WFOS TWC HAS NAMED THE NOR'EASTER "ATHENA.." THE NWS DOES NOT USE NAME WINTER STORMS IN OUR PRODUCTS. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING THE TERM ATHENA IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS. $$ RW
North Georgia Weather November 07, 2012 at 05:24 PM
Snow! :-)) SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1215 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012 GAZ021-022-032>034-043>045-071830- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON- DEKALB- 1215 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012 ...BRIEF WINTERY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA THIS AFTERNOON... A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT IT WILL BE TO BE SHORT LIVED. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
North Georgia Weather November 07, 2012 at 09:21 PM
Alert: ...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. * NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA... * TEMPERATURES...34 TO 36 DEGREES. * TIMING...THURSDAY MORNING Instructions: A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
North Georgia Weather November 08, 2012 at 04:05 PM
A Freeze Warning will be issued this afternoon for tonight. A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE DUE TO EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS SEASON...THE MAJORITY OF THIS AREA HAS YET TO SEE A HARD FREEZE...SO A FREEZE WARNING IS STILL APPLICABLE. WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL ON THE WARNED AREA.

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